• Question: do you predict every earthquake in the world and if so how would you go by doing it?

    Asked by teenie to Davie, Gemma, James P, James V, Nuala on 29 Jun 2012.
    • Photo: James Pope

      James Pope answered on 29 Jun 2012:

      Hi tennie,

      I don’t think we can predict Earthquakes, but scientists are trying to work out if we can find a way to. James V is the man for this though!

    • Photo: James Verdon

      James Verdon answered on 29 Jun 2012:

      Hi teenie,

      We can’t predict individual earthquakes at all. What we do is look at earthquake risks. For example, an area might have a high earthquake risk if there are lots of faults there, and if it has a historical record of having a lot of earthquakes, while an area will have a lower risk if there are no faults in the area, and not many earthquakes have happened there in the past.

      We use earthquake risk assessments to decide things like where to put important buildings and structures like nuclear power stations.

      But earthquakes happen without warning, so there is no way we can predict the exact time and place that an earthquake will happen.

    • Photo: Davie Galloway

      Davie Galloway answered on 2 Jul 2012:

      Hi teenie,

      Nope, we don’t predict any earthquakes and no one has been successful at ever predicting a major earthquake. We don’t know how and we don’t not expect to know how any time soon.

      However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for the potential for future earthquakes, eg we can estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major earthquake happening in the San Francisco Bay area is around 70%

      Scientists tend to concentrate on on the long-term study of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to do short-term predictions.

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