Question: when predicting an earthquake, how often are the predictions correct?

James Verdon answered on 25 Jun 2012:

Hi alice14,
That’s a tough one. In reality, earthquake prediction doesn’t work like that. We don’t say – tomorrow there’ll be an earthquake at exactly eleven thirty or something. Instead, we identify areas that are at greater risk. For instance, there might be a fault, and we know it has had an earthquake every 100 years or so. Maybe historical records show it had an earthquake in 1605, 1720, 1798, and 1912. Therefore, we might expect another one around 2010, so it’s a risky area, but we can’t know exactly when the quake will happen.

In the high risk areas, it’s important to ensure that the buildings are constructed according to strict regulations, which say they must be reinforced to help stop them falling down during an earthquake (one of the main reason people are killed in quakes is because buildings come down on top of them). It’s also important to educate people in high risk areas about what to do in a quake – you should get outside and away from buildings if you can. If you can’t, get under a table or doorway for greater protection. In Japan, which has lots of earthquakes, they have earthquake drills, where they practice what to do, in the same way we have fire drills here.